I've never 'bought' the climate change hype. Even less so after reading this.
Myths
and Facts about Climate Change
From Climate
Change 101
MYTH
1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate.
FACT:
Accurate satellite, balloon and mountain top observations made over the last
three decades have not shown any significant change in the long term rate of
increase in global temperatures. Average ground station readings do show a mild
warming of 0.6 to 0.8C over the last 100 years, which is well within the
natural variations recorded in the last millennium. The ground station network
suffers from an uneven distribution across the globe; the stations are
preferentially located in growing urban and industrial areas ("heat
islands"), which show substantially higher readings than adjacent rural
areas ("land use effects"). Two science teams have shown that
correcting the surface temperature record for the effects of urban development
would reduce the warming trend over land from 1980 by half. There has been no
catastrophic warming recorded.
MYTH
2: The "hockey stick" graph proves that the earth has experienced a
steady, very gradual temperature decrease for 1000 years, then recently began a
sudden increase.
FACT: Significant
changes in climate have continually occurred throughout geologic time. For
instance, the Medieval Warm Period, from around 1000 to1200 AD (when the
Vikings farmed on Greenland) was followed by a period known as the Little Ice
Age. Since the end of the 17th Century the "average global
temperature" has been rising at the low steady rate mentioned above;
although from 1940 – 1970 temperatures actually dropped, leading to a Global
Cooling scare. The "hockey stick", a poster boy of both the UN's IPCC
and Canada's Environment Department, ignores historical recorded climatic
swings, and has now also been proven to be flawed and statistically unreliable
as well. It is a computer construct and a faulty one at that.
MYTH
3: Human produced carbon dioxide has increased over the last 100 years, adding
to the Greenhouse effect, thus warming the earth.
FACT:
Carbon dioxide levels have indeed changed for various reasons, human and
otherwise, just as they have throughout geologic time. Since the beginning of
the industrial revolution, the CO2 content of the atmosphere has increased. The
RATE of growth during this period has also increased from about 0.2% per year
to the present rate of about 0.4% per year, which growth rate has now been
constant for the past 25 years. However, there is no proof that CO2 is the main
driver of global warming. As measured in ice cores dated over many thousands of
years, CO2 levels move up and down AFTER the temperature has done so, and thus
are the RESULT OF, NOT THE CAUSE of warming. Geological field work in recent
sediments confirms this causal relationship. There is solid evidence that, as
temperatures move up and down naturally and cyclically through solar radiation,
orbital and galactic influences, the warming surface layers of the earth's
oceans expel more CO2 as a result.
MYTH
4: CO2 is the most common greenhouse gas.
FACT:
Greenhouse gases form about 3% of the atmosphere by volume. They consist of
varying amounts, (about 97%) of water vapour and clouds, with the remainder
being gases like CO2, CH4, Ozone and N2O, of which carbon dioxide is the
largest amount. Hence, CO2 constitutes about 0.039% of the atmosphere. While
the minor gases are more effective as "greenhouse agents" than water
vapour and clouds, the latter are overwhelming [by] the effect [of] their sheer
volume and, in the end, are thought to be responsible for 75% of the
"Greenhouse effect". At current concentrations, a 3% change of water
vapour in the atmosphere would have the same effect as a 100% change in CO2.
Those attributing climate change to CO2 rarely mention these important facts.
MYTH
5: Computer models verify that CO2 increases will cause significant global
warming.
FACT:
The computer models assume that CO2 is the primary climate driver, and that the
Sun has an insignificant effect on climate. You
cannot use the output of a model to verify or prove its initial assumption
- that is circular reasoning and is illogical. Computer models can be made to
roughly match the 20th century temperature rise by adjusting many input
parameters and using strong positive feedbacks. They do not "prove"
anything. Also, computer models predicting global warming are incapable of
properly including the effects of the sun, cosmic rays and the clouds. The sun
is a major cause of temperature variation on the earth surface as its received
radiation changes all the time, This happens largely in cyclical fashion. The
number and the lengths in time of sunspots can be correlated very closely with
average temperatures on earth, e.g. the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm
Period. Varying intensity of solar heat radiation affects the surface
temperature of the oceans and the currents. Warmer ocean water expels gases,
some of which are CO2. Solar radiation interferes with the cosmic ray flux,
thus influencing the amount ionized nuclei which control cloud cover.
MYTH
6: The UN proved that man–made CO2 causes global warming.
FACT: In a 1996 report by the UN on global warming,
two statements were deleted from the final draft. Here they are:
1) "None of the studies cited above has shown
clear evidence that we can attribute the observed climate changes to increases
in greenhouse gases."
2) "No study to date has positively attributed
all or part of the climate change to man–made causes"
To the present day there is still no scientific
proof that man-made CO2 causes significant global warming.
MYTH
7: CO2 is a pollutant.
FACT: This is absolutely not true. Nitrogen forms 80% of our atmosphere. We could not live
in 100% nitrogen either. Carbon dioxide is no more a pollutant than nitrogen
is. CO2 is essential to life on earth. It is necessary for plant growth since
increased CO2 intake as a result of increased atmospheric concentration causes
many trees and other plants to grow more vigorously. Unfortunately, the
Canadian Government has included CO2 with a number of truly toxic and noxious
substances listed by the Environmental Protection Act, only as their means of
political control.
MYTH
8: Global warming will cause more storms and other weather extremes.
FACT:
There is no scientific or statistical evidence whatsoever that supports such
claims on a global scale. Regional variations may occur. Growing insurance and
infrastructure repair costs, particularly in coastal areas, are sometimes
claimed to be the result of increasing frequency and severity of storms,
whereas in reality they are a function of increasing population density,
escalating development value, and ever more media reporting.
MYTH
9: Receding glaciers and the calving of ice shelves are proof of global
warming.
FACT: Glaciers have been receding and growing
cyclically for hundreds of years. Recent glacier melting is a consequence of
coming out of the very cool period of the Little Ice Age. Ice shelves have been
breaking off for centuries. Scientists know of at least 33 periods of glaciers
growing and then retreating. It’s normal. Besides, glacier's health is
dependent as much on precipitation as on temperature.
MYTH
10: The earth’s poles are warming; polar ice caps are breaking up and melting
and the sea level rising.
FACT:
The earth is variable. The western Arctic may be getting somewhat warmer, due
to cyclic events in the Pacific Ocean, but the Eastern Arctic and Greenland are
getting colder. The small Palmer Peninsula of Antarctica is getting warmer,
while the main Antarctic continent is actually cooling. Ice thicknesses are
increasing both on Greenland and in Antarctica. Sea level monitoring in the
Pacific (Tuvalu) and Indian Oceans (Maldives) has shown no sign of any sea
level rise.
Review some references 1
here, 2 here, 3 here,
4
here, 5
here.Here endeth the ten lessons.
My view is that whether or not 'global warming' is happening, the hype about CO2 being the cause is not justified. Therefore, attempts to 'manipulate' so-called climate change, by promoting expensive initiatives to reduce CO2, are futile and doomed to failure and we might as well not bother. What we should do instead is learn to live with it. Why governments can't admit that they've got it wrong, say 'sorry' and pull back from the Kyoto and other climate change agreements I don't know. I'm not arguing that efforts to improve the insulation of homes and other building in order to conserve heat and reduce energy consumption are not useful and sensible things to do in order to use less energy and therefore conserve scarce resources. But I am arguing, for instance, that to ask British industry to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% over x years puts an unfair and unnecessary burden on it manufacturing industries that reduces their competitiveness to their great disadvantage.
One additional point: What happens when you start to heat water over a fire? As the water gets warm, the hot water rises and the cold water descends in a circulation pattern. The more heat, the more vigorous the circulation until eventually the water boils and turn to its gaseous form of water vapour. The amount of heat received by the Earth from the Sun varies over time, sometimes more, sometimes less. It is therefore perfectly reasonable to suggest that in times when the Earth receives more heat from the Sun that that heat is absorbed not just by the land, from which it is reflected to heat the air above it, but also by the seas - which act as a huge thermal reservoir. To argue, therefore, that warming per se causes more vigorous storm systems carrying more potential rain is to state the obvious. I think that this is a case of simple physics.
Labels: climate change, CO2, global warming, greenhouse effect
posted by longfuse @ 12:28 am
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